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Tax-Aware Retirement Modeling

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Taxes are the single biggest variable most retirement calculators ignore. A 10% real return in a taxable account isn’t the same as a 10% real return in a Roth IRA — and a Bitcoin-heavy portfolio in California has dramatically different math than the same portfolio in Texas. This page helps you pick the right calculator for tax-aware planning and points to the state-specific tax research that informs the model.

Pick your calculator

Tax treatment shapes which calculator matches your real-world balance sheet. Three options, picked by complexity:

Basic
5 assets

Cash, equities, bonds, Bitcoin, primary residence. Tax-aware framing: use real (inflation-adjusted) returns and treat taxable account returns conservatively.

Best for: new retirement modelers, simple balance sheets, quick estimates.

Open Basic →
Most Common
Intermediate
12 assets

Adds 401(k), IRA, HSA, I-Bonds, REITs, Gold, Other Crypto. Models tax-advantaged accounts so you can compare effective after-tax allocations.

Best for: people with retirement accounts and intent to optimize across taxable / tax-deferred / tax-free buckets.

Open Intermediate →
Advanced
35 assets

Full coverage: 401k, Roth 401k, 403b, Traditional + Roth + SEP IRA, HSA, 529, I-Bonds, pension, annuity, whole life cash value, private real estate, Trump 401(k) Beta — plus the basics.

Best for: complex balance sheets, business owners, multi-state planners, those modeling specific tax structures.

Open Advanced →

State Tax Strategy series

Tax treatment varies dramatically by state. The series walks through state-specific Bitcoin and retirement tax rules for high-impact states. Each article pairs with the calculators above — read the state piece, then plug your numbers in.

Published · California

Bitcoin Retirement in California: State Tax Strategy

CA treats Bitcoin gains as ordinary income at the state level (up to 13.3%). The article walks through the 3 biggest cost-basis errors and the residency rules that matter for a relocation.

See also: Moving out of California with Bitcoin gains · CA cost basis filing

Coming Soon

Texas, Florida, New York

State-by-state Bitcoin retirement tax research is expanding based on traffic data from the California series. TX (no state income tax, but franchise tax matters for businesses), FL (no state income tax, but estate planning differs), NY (high state income tax + NYC city tax stacking).

If you want a state added to the priority queue, let Sterling know via the consulting page.

Want tax-aware modeling done for you?

Tax-aware retirement modeling is where the calculator output most often diverges from real-world outcomes. The single biggest factor a calculator can’t model on its own is your specific state + tax-account mix + intended withdrawal sequencing. If you want a thinking partner for this kind of planning rather than another tool, Modern Wealth Consulting offers fee-for-time strategy and planning sessions starting at $300.

Tax-aware Bitcoin retirement — talk to Colin

Fixed prices. No AUM fees. No commissions. I am not a custodian, not a lender, and not a registered investment advisor — just a thinking partner who has spent a year answering these questions for myself and writing the work down. Tax-aware-specific planning is one of the most common reasons clients reach out.

Modern Wealth Consulting →

Frequently asked questions

Why don’t the calculators model taxes directly?

Because doing it right requires your specific state, your tax bracket, your account mix, your filing status, and your intended withdrawal sequence. Generic tax modeling produces numbers that look precise but are wrong in interesting ways for almost everyone. We instead use real (inflation-adjusted) returns and provide tax-aware analysis on the State Tax Strategy series + 1:1 in consulting.

How do I make the calculator output more tax-aware on my own?

Three adjustments cover most cases: (1) Use lower real-return assumptions for taxable accounts (subtract 0.5-1% from the default for taxable equities to account for tax drag). (2) Use the actual contribution limits when modeling tax-advantaged accounts (the intermediate and advanced calcs already enforce these). (3) Treat your safe withdrawal rate as pre-tax — budget for federal + state income tax on Traditional 401(k) and Traditional IRA withdrawals.

Is there a state-tax-specific calculator yet?

Not yet. The State Tax Strategy series (CA published, TX/FL/NY in development) is the current vehicle for state-specific math. A state-aware calculator may ship in a future iteration if traffic justifies the build. Right now, the workflow is: read the state article for your state, then plug your numbers into the appropriate calculator (basic / intermediate / advanced) with state-tax-adjusted return assumptions.

Does the Trump 401(k) Beta apply to all states?

The Trump 401(k) executive order that authorized crypto in 401(k) plans is federal, so the structure is the same across states. State-specific differences show up at withdrawal time. If you’re in a no-state-income-tax state (TX, FL), the tax math is simpler. If you’re in CA or NY, the state income tax at withdrawal compounds the federal tax. The advanced calculator includes a Trump 401(k) Beta asset for modeling.

What about RMDs (Required Minimum Distributions)?

RMDs are not modeled in any of the calculators. They kick in at age 73 for most retirees and force distributions from Traditional 401(k) and Traditional IRA accounts — which can push you into a higher tax bracket exactly when you can least afford it. Tax-aware modeling typically front-loads Roth conversions in the 55-72 window to reduce future RMDs. This is one of the most common consulting topics.

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