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Bitcoin Retirement Calculator (Basic)

Three numbers, three scenarios, one honest projection. No Power Law math, no custom growth rates. Just enter your Bitcoin holdings, your monthly DCA, and your timeline. The math runs in your browser — no email, no account, no data leaves the page.

Want full control over growth assumptions, Power Law toggle, and multi-asset modeling? Try the advanced version →

Scenario
Methodology: Returns are real (inflation-adjusted), compounded monthly. The 4% safe withdrawal rate comes from the 1998 Trinity Study. Read the full methodology → · What we don’t model: volatility distribution, sequence-of-returns risk, tax drag, healthcare inflation, Social Security.

Frequently asked questions

What’s the difference between this and the advanced calculator?

This version uses three fixed scenario CAGRs (3% / 12% / 22%) so you can see a quick spread without picking a growth rate yourself. The advanced version lets you set custom growth, toggle the Power Law model, and integrate with multi-asset projections.

Are these returns nominal or real?

Real — inflation-adjusted. The future portfolio value shown is in today’s purchasing power, not future nominal dollars. If you’re unsure why the distinction matters, the methodology page walks through it.

Why these three scenarios (3% / 12% / 22%)?

3% real CAGR is roughly Bitcoin underperforming a bond ladder long-term — a deep skeptic scenario. 12% real is approximately the global stock market’s long-run real return — Bitcoin behaving like equities. 22% real is a moderate continuation of Bitcoin’s historical adoption curve. Together they bracket the realistic range without claiming any one is “the answer.”

What’s a monthly DCA?

Dollar-Cost Averaging — buying a fixed dollar amount each month regardless of price. It’s the most common Bitcoin retirement strategy because it smooths the impact of volatility on your average entry price.

What’s a safe withdrawal rate?

The 4% rule, popularized by the 1998 Trinity Study, says you can withdraw roughly 4% of your portfolio annually with a high probability of the money lasting 30+ years. We display the 4% number to give you a sense of what your retirement income might be, but the assumption was originally derived from stock and bond portfolios — Bitcoin’s volatility may justify a more conservative rate. The sequence-of-returns piece walks through this in depth.